“Current reporting” sets Hormuz and Red Sea intensity from today's chokepoint coverage (watch = 35, elevated = 70); oil and FX stay at zero. Hypothetical sensitivities from documented geography and trade profile. Every country, chart and directive in the terminal updates instantly. Not a forecast.
Disclaimer: scenario outputs reflect computational analytical models and multi-variable inputs, including the assumptions you set. They do not reflect the opinions or position of the platform, are not advice, and require independent verification before any use.
Baseline: no shock applied. Choose a preset or move a slider.
Each step is a stated transmission mechanism with fixed coefficients, shown so analysts can challenge it.
| Economy | ENERGY | HORMUZ | REDSEA | FX | Total | Prod. viability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 51 |
| UAE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 87 |
| Qatar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 |
| Kuwait | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Bahrain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Oman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Yemen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Iraq | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Syria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Lebanon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Jordan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| Palestine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Egypt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 80 |
| Libya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tunisia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Algeria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| Sudan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
ENERGY · HORMUZ · REDSEA · FX — hover a cell for the country-specific channel name.
Loading published trade figures…
Money terms from each economy's latest published trade composition. Energy cost = change in the net fuel bill (importers) or fuel export earnings (exporters) from the oil move; gains show as 0. FX import bill = extra local-currency cost of imports with the FX slider read as % depreciation (floating currencies only; pegs show 0 and lean on reserves). Trade exposed = goods exports and imports multiplied by route disruption; an upper bound, as some trade uses other routes. First-order only; “—” means the figures are not published for comparable years. Not a forecast.
Light bar = raw scenario exposure; dark bar = residual stress once reserves cover, fiscal balance, government debt and current account (published statistics) absorb up to half. Economies without enough published series are shown unabsorbed.
Sovereign Observatory
Access for governments, sovereign funds, family offices and research institutions. Eight instruments — Command, Country Dossier, Shock Propagation, Narrative Radar, Inter-Capital comparison, Ports & Chokepoints, the Renewable Energy Atlas and the Sovereign Memo — read one country state and one scenario at once. Every figure traces to a published register, measured data, documented geography or attributed reporting.
- Military capacity (0-100)
- Where the country sits in a published annual ranking of armed-forces strength (personnel, aircraft, armour, naval fleet, logistics), rescaled among Arab states: 100 = strongest in the region, 0 = weakest. Use it to gauge security weight and defence-market size.
- Media industry base (0-100)
- Documented production infrastructure: film/TV sound stages, media free zones and headquarters of pan-Arab news networks, equally weighted and scaled so the regional leader = 100. Blank means no documented facilities, not zero activity. Use it to choose production, broadcast and partnership locations.
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